The 2020 elections will be remembered in the history books. Voter turnout was so high that it set records in many parts of the country. We applaud so many people for exercising their right to vote.
Key Takeaways from the Election:
- We believe Joe Biden will be the next president and the legal challenges from the Trump Administration are unlikely to overturn the result, even though the election is not yet certified. We are watching this closely as the race tightens in a few states and recounts take place.
- Democrats will retain the majority in the House of Representatives but will have a smaller majority than the last term as Republicans have increased their number in the House. There are still a considerable number of races that have not been called, so the final number remains uncertain.
- The majority party in the Senate has not been finalized because there are still 2 races that have not been called. Republicans currently hold a 50-48 lead according to the Associated Press. The Senate majority will come down to the two Senate seats in Georgia. There will be run-off elections for both seats in January for the two candidates in each race with the most votes because none of the candidates won by 50%. If the Republicans can win one of the two seats, they will hold the majority 51-49. If the Democrats win both seats, it will be 50-50 and the Vice President (Kamala Harris) casts the deciding vote, so the Democrats would have the majority.
- In 2018, 15 Democrats in the House of Representatives did not vote to make Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House. With a narrower majority, it may become more difficult for Nancy Pelosi to become the next Speaker and that may open new challenges from other Democrats.
- Many polls were incorrect for this election and some were off by a considerable margin. Many analysts had their base case for the election as a blue wave, meaning Joe Biden would win the Presidency by a considerable margin (some polls had as much as a 10 point lead), and the Democrats would pick up seats in the House and take the majority in the Senate. Biden achieved the highest popular vote margin in history by over 5 million.
What Biden Administration Policies are Possible with a Divided Government?
Based on the expected divided government, if Joe Biden becomes the next President and the Republicans keep the majority in the Senate, Here are our thoughts on what might happen:
If both seats in Georgia go to the Democrats, then we would expect some of the things in the right column to come into play.