Clients keep asking us why the U.S. stock market continues to perform well, through tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and everything else 2025 and 2026 have thrown at it. Much of the answer comes down to one thing: American consumers continue to spend at high levels, quarter after quarter. Corporate profits follow consumer behavior, and right now, consumers are remarkably resilient. This month, we'll look at the data, and then share a firsthand story that made those numbers feel very real.
In the blog this month, we will discuss:
- Personal Consumption
- Consumer Debt
- A Personal Story from Elaine and Scott
- Conclusion
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Personal Consumption
Let’s start by looking at total consumer spending in the U.S. Consumer spending in the U.S. continues to climb, year after year. The graph below tells the story clearly, and notably, the pace of growth has actually accelerated since the Covid pandemic.
Unemployment is holding steady at historically low levels. On April 3rd, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment grew by 178,000 jobs, significantly beating expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.4% to 4.3%. The pattern is consistent: when people have jobs, they spend.
Credit Card Debt
A natural question: are consumers just putting it all on credit cards?
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
This is the data the comes from the U.S. government on total credit card debt outstanding. As we can see from the data, the amount outstanding on credit cards remains strong.
A Personal Story from Elaine and Scott
The Investment Team at FJP follows the economic data closely. But we also like to see the economy with our own eyes, at restaurants, airports, shopping centers, and wherever daily life plays out.
As we mentioned in last month's newsletter, our son Ben got married in Orlando in early March, and while we were there, Elaine and Scott spent a day at Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom. What we experienced was one of the most striking illustrations of consumer spending we've seen in years.
We had one ride at the top of our list: the new Tron Lightcycle Roller Coaster. We chose Friday, February 27th deliberately, a weekday with no holidays and well before Spring Break, hoping the park would be manageable. As you might guess, that turned out to be wishful thinking.
Here's what a day at Magic Kingdom costs today:
Park admission runs $128 per person, which felt like a reasonable starting point. What we didn't fully anticipate was the Lightning Lane.
Before the pandemic, Disney offered a free "Fast Pass" system that let guests reserve a shorter line every two hours. That program is gone. In its place is the Lightning Lane, and Disney now charges for access. A Premier Pass lets you use the shorter line for each ride once during the day. Disney prices these dynamically, adjusting day by day to capture maximum demand. When we visited, the Premier Pass was $400 per person. It has since increased to $429.
We weighed it carefully. Without the pass, we'd spend most of the day standing in 60- to 90-minute lines and see only a handful of attractions. With it, we'd move through the park efficiently and actually enjoy the day we'd planned. We decided it was worth it.
Then we found out they were already sold out.
Guests staying at Walt Disney World's on-property hotels, where rooms start at roughly $1,000 per night, get access to Lightning Lane passes a full day before the general public. By the time passes went on sale at 7 a.m., they were gone.
Think about what a single day costs for a couple in that situation:
Park Pass: $128 x 2 = $256
Lighting Lane Pass: $400 x 2 = $800
Disney Property Hotel: $1000 or more
Food Can be hundreds more for a day, depending on the restaurants
Even without the exact figures for what is spent on food, people are spending more than $2000/day. That's more than a full day on an ultra-luxury cruise ship, for a single day at a theme park. For a family of four, the number roughly doubles and so on. And the park was jam packed.
Conclusion
What struck us wasn't just the price. It was that people paid it, and there weren't enough passes to go around. Over the past several months, we've seen the same pattern at airports, restaurants, hotels, and concert venues: capacity strained, prices high, demand unrelenting.
The CEO of United Airlines reinforced this picture in early January, telling CNBC that five of the airline's highest booking days in history all occurred in the first two weeks of January 2026. Airlines and cruise lines alike are reporting record reservations for the year ahead.
Could this change? Of course. We watch carefully for any signs of a slowdown, rising delinquencies, softening payrolls, and a pullback in discretionary spending. But right now, the American consumer is the engine driving this economy, and that engine is running hot. Until something changes, that's a meaningful tailwind for U.S. equities and for the clients we serve.
If you are a client of FJP and have questions about the U.S. economy, the U.S. stock market, or your portfolio, contact your Wealth Manager, Elaine Manley, Scott Manley, Linda Tjiputra, we love hearing from you and are happy to talk.
References:
1U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED
2U.S. Census Bureau
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